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HP2DFA > ARRL 17.10.26 23:40l 49 Lines 2456 Bytes #28 (0) @ WW
BID : 4740_HP2DFA
Subj: THE ARRL SOLAR UPDATE: HF PROPAGATION & SOLAR FLUX (OCTOBER
Path: JH4XSY<IW0QNL<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<DM4RW<HP2DFA
Sent: 261017/1431Z 4740@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
Title: THE ARRL SOLAR UPDATE: HF PROPAGATION & SOLAR FLUX (OCTOBER 2026)
ARRL SPACE WEATHER AND HF PROPAGATION BULLETIN (SWPC / OK1HH)
TECHNICAL SOLAR PROPAGATION & IONOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BULLETIN
SOLAR FLUX, A/K INDICES, AND DX FORECAST (OCTOBER 16-22, 2026)
VALID: 17-OCT-2026 ONWARDS
ISSUED VIA BPQ32 NODE HP2DFA-5 IN PANAMA
======================================================================
1. GENERAL OVERVIEW & HF PROPAGATION
======================================================================
LOOK FOR IMPROVED PROPAGATION ON UPPER HF BANDS AS SUNSPOT NUMBERS AND
10.7-CM RADIO FLUX REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100. NOAA'S SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (SWPC) REPORTS THAT INCREASED ACTIVITY IS FUELED BY SUNSPOT REGION 4551,
THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX OF SIX VISIBLE REGIONS. MOSTLY QUIET GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
======================================================================
2. W3LPL PROPAGATION FORECAST
======================================================================
- 10M & 12M BANDS : SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED DX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR UP TO
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
- 17M, 15M & 20M : EXCELLENT PROPAGATION CONDITIONS.
- 30M BAND : DX OPENINGS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON DAILY.
- 40M BAND : OPENS ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE SUNSET.
- 80M BAND : OPENS JUST AFTER SUNSET.
======================================================================
3. OK1HH WEEKLY COMMENTARY (F. K. JANDA)
======================================================================
THE 27-DAY SOLAR ROTATION CYCLE SHOWED ANOMALOUS TRENDS: THE RECENT PEAK SOLAR
FLUX OF 136 S.F.U. ON OCTOBER 13 OCCURRED EXACTLY 27 DAYS AFTER SEPTEMBER 17
(97 S.F.U.). SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL DECLINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER. WHILE A
BRIEF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED AFTER OCTOBER 20, THE REST OF THE
MONTH WILL BRING CALM AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
======================================================================
4. PREDICTED INDICES (OCTOBER 16 - OCTOBER 22, 2026)
======================================================================
- PLANETARY A INDEX : 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 15, 20 (MEAN: 8.6)
- PLANETARY K INDEX : 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4 (MEAN: 2.4)
- 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX: 100, 95, 95, 100, 100, 105, 100 (MEAN: 99.3)
CREDITS & SOURCES: ARRL / SWPC / OK1HH (F. K. JANDA)
NODE CONTACT MAIL: HP2DFA@GMAIL.COM / HP2DFA-5@BPQ32
73 DE HP2DFA-5 / BPQ32 NODE PANAMA
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