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LU9DCE > NEWS 25.05.26 18:34l 405 Lines 16802 Bytes #1 (0) @ WW
BID : 14386_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-MAY
Path: JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260525/0931Z 14386@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 25 08:46:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON MAY 25 08:46:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 25 08:46:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON MAY 25 08:46:01 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAY 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDE
PACIFIC IS ONGOING. NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS REGIME, A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ARE NOW
DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, AND FORECAST TO PROGRESS
INLAND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE CENTER OF BROAD, WEAK TROUGHING EMERGING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME, ALONG A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
DOWNSTREAM, WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
BASIN WILL TEND TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A HIGH REMAINS PROMINENT ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN HIGHER LATITUDES, MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE EAST THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCLUDE FURTHER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST AND
ADJACENT GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN LOWER LEVELS, A COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS
WASHINGTON, OREGON AND MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, SEASONABLY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR APPEARS LIKELY TO GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
...MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD/ADJACENT UPPER GREAT LAKES...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, EVEN AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT DIG ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO, GENERALLY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN SO, CONVECTION
ALLOWING AND RELATED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD VICINITY, IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL. AS A RESULT, 5 PERCENT SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK
OF BETTER AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SPREAD EVIDENT WITHIN
GUIDANCE CONCERNING POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION, THESE MAY BE TOO
HIGH.
...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ADJACENT MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FROM MOST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING,
FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWESTERN IOWA. IF INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTINUING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND MORE SUBSTANTIVE
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING IS OVERCOME, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL, PARTICULARLY WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA VICINITY.
...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT, WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU, MAY SUPPORT AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN CHIHUAHUA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE
ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE, BUT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..KERR/CHALMERS.. 05/25/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAY 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS THIS
REGION, LARGE HAIL, SEVERE GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PATTERN ON D2/TUESDAY WILL INCLUDE A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HEIGHT RISES WITH A BUILDING HIGH
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN US. A SHORTWAVE WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON.
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS. MODE WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THROUGH TIME, CELLS ARE PROGGED TO CLUSTER AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. SHOULD CELLS BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST. THE SLIGHT RISK REMAINS UNCHANGED BUT A MINOR EASTWARD
EXPANSION WAS GIVEN TO THE MARGINAL RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
...MONTANA...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO MONTANA. MODEST INSTABILITY
AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMID DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.
..THORNTON.. 05/25/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 25, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW.
...DISCUSSION...
THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA. OVERALL, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LARGELY BE WEST OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TYPICALLY EXHIBITS A MOIST-BIAS
DOES SUGGEST THAT HIGHER INSTABILITY DOES NUDGE INTO NORTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO. SHOULD MORE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS
SCENARIO INCREASE, LOW PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN
UPCOMING OUTLOOK UPDATES.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOW.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS
ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW FROM A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 35-40
KTS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH SKINNY AND ELONGATED CAPE PROFILES AND ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH A
FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
..THORNTON.. 05/25/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MAY 25, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/THURSDAY THROUGH D5/FRIDAY...
THE WESTERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AND PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM D4/THURSDAY - D5/FRIDAY. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, PENDING DETAILS
ON MOISTURE, ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MAY STRENGTHEN D5/FRIDAY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
END SEVERE RISK INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY CORRIDORS OF ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK REMAIN TOO LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST D4/THURSDAY
THROUGH D5/FRIDAY AS ENHANCED FLOW DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME LOW END SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EACH DAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN OVERLAP OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
...D6/SATURDAY THROUGH D8/MONDAY...
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND D7/SUNDAY THROUGH D8/MONDAY, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE FOR A LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN US WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MAY SHUNT MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF STATES.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN CONTINUE TO HOLD, SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
...SYNOPSIS...
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AS A WEAKER MID/UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF
ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND THE SOUTH
ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
...GREAT BASIN...
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES AROUND 15% ALSO EXPECTED. RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS THAT
FUELS ARE BECOMING MORE RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH AND CURED/DRYING LOWER
ELEVATION FUELS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
ALSO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP REDUCED RH OF 15-25%.
...SOUTHWEST...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF GREATER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE). THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED, WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING EVAPORATION OF RAINFALL. MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PROLONGED
CONVECTIVE EVENT IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.5" POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY FROM WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
MINOR TRIMMING TO THE DRAWN AREA WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TRENDS IN THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD STILL BE
MORE PREVALENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ALONG THE
FRINGES OF THE DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS, WHERE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN.
..CHALMERS.. 05/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON D2/TUESDAY AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
...NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING LEE
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND RH REDUCTIONS TO NEAR
15% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH DRY FUELS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD SHIFTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO INCREASES WITH
WESTWARD EXTENT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES.
...GREAT BASIN...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMID THIS STRENGTHENING GRADIENT, WITH
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SUPPORTING RH REDUCTIONS TO
15-20% (LOCALLY LOWER). ACCELERATING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER IN EXPOSED,
ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS). WITH NEAR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF DRIER FINE FUELS.
..CHALMERS.. 05/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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