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LU9DCE > NEWS 08.10.26 20:32l 302 Lines 11187 Bytes #4 (0) @ WW
BID : 24350_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-OCT
Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 261008/1130Z 24350@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU OCT 8 08:25:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU OCT 8 08:25:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU OCT 8 08:25:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU OCT 8 08:25:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST, AS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION. AT THE
SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN IOWA AND FROM NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 10/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COASTAL AREAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF ISAIAS.
...NORTHERN GULF COAST...
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS ISAIAS INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH PLACES THE MOST FAVORABLE TORNADO RISK TO
THE EAST. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FORWARD SPEED, THE
MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL AT
LEAST MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/FL PANHANDLE BY
12Z SATURDAY (THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD).
SEVERAL CAMS ARE NOW RESOLVING MODERATE TO STRONG UH TRACKS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
WHILE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN REGARD TO THE EXACT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, ALL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADO RISK AS SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BOTH BE FAVORABLE.
SUPERCELLS MAY BECOME EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER THE GULF, WITH TORNADO
THREAT INCREASING AS CELLS MOVE ASHORE AND SURFACE WINDS GAIN A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. AS SUCH, TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 10/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 8, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
A CORRIDOR OF TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTO PARTS OF GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.
...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
AS ISAIAS MERGES WITH THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY, MODERATE TO STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AL
AND ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND EAST OF THE LOW, ROUGHLY FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO FAR EASTERN AL AND SOUTHWEST GA. SOME OF THE EARLY
DAY CELLS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG. THIS THREAT AREA
SHOULD LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ACROSS AL AND GA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK AND WARM FRONT
POSITION, THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
OVERNIGHT, THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH, WITH
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND CAROLINAS. A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED
FOR THE NIGHT TIME SCENARIO, WHICH SHOULD SEE GENERALLY LESSER (BUT
STILL FAVORABLE) SHEAR VALUES AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.
...AZ...
THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE, AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF DESTABILIZATION,
AND SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL DEFER POSSIBLE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS ISOLATED
CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON PROPER DESTABILIZATION.
..JEWELL.. 10/08/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 8, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON SUN/D4, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW (PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE) WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS,
AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND NORTHWARD
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM GA/CAROLINAS INTO VA/DELMARVA,
RESULTING IN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE. SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST OVER THE REGION, AND THEREFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION. MOST MODELS
SHOW LITTLE IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. AS SUCH, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE ADDED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE SCENARIO EVOLVES.
TO THE WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN CA AND AZ, WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING DESTABILIZATION DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN, THOUGH SOME SEVERE WIND AND EVEN HAIL POTENTIAL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY HIGHER. THIS AREA
TOO MAY SEE AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THU/D8, A POTENTIAL WESTERN
TROUGH EJECTION MAY OCCUR INTO THE PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ON OR AFTER WED/D7 AS MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE FROM TX INTO OK AND
KS. AS SUCH, THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT NEARS,
AND AS TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE PREDICTABLE.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC AREA BY THIS EVENING. WHILE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST UP TO 20-30 MPH,
THESE STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONSTRAINED TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. REGARDLESS, RHS STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 30% BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUB-CRITICAL FUELS AMID HEIGHTENED HUMIDITY WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..STEARNS.. 10/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...
...SYNOPSIS...
ON DAY 2/FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PAIRED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT, WILL CREATE
IMPACTFUL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN CONUS. PROLONGED DRY, WARM CONDITIONS BENEATH A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CURED FUELS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS ARE FORECAST TO
EXCEED THE 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREAS PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS.
...MUCH OF WYOMING, CENTRAL MONTANA, SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...
ENHANCED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON DAY 2/FRIDAY WILL DRIVE
WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PROMOTE SEASONALLY DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, TIED
TO A DEEPENING LEE LOW FURTHER NORTH, AND A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
COLD FRONT, TRANSITING THROUGH MONTANA AROUND SUNSET, WILL BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT. IN TANDEM, SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN, WARRANTING AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA.
FURTHERMORE, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH, CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT, AND HIGHLY RECEPTIVE FUELS NEAR THE 90TH
ERC PERCENTILE.
...SOUTHEAST OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND THE FAR WESTERN GREAT
BASIN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SIMILARLY SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY DEEP MIXING ACROSS THIS REGION. AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER DRY
FUELS, THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A TARGETED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..STEARNS.. 10/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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