Login: GUEST @ JH4XSY.14.JNET1.JPN.AS [Tsuchiura]
home | newest check | boards | help index | log | ps | userlogin | send sysop | slog | status forward | bcm news | users | version | remove cookie
LU9DCE > NEWS 16.07.26 19:48l 424 Lines 17970 Bytes #7 (0) @ WW
BID : 17782_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUL
Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 260716/1045Z 17782@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 16 07:37:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 16 07:37:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JUL 16 07:37:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JUL 16 07:37:01 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC JUL 16, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
MONTANA, MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, THE UPPER MIDWEST,
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGING, A BELT OF
ENHANCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT 50S F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS REGION BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE).
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN 30+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. ORGANIZED CELLS WILL
POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RISK FOR 1+ INCH HAIL WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MT.
...NEW ENGLAND...
A VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EVENING. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WITH 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES LIKELY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F. STRONGER
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE MORE PROMINENT SMOKE PLUME
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AIDING IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST, STRONG FLOW AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN PA/MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY...
STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, APPROACHING THE PA/MD BORDER VICINITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL FOSTER A CORRIDOR
OF 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DELETERIOUS IMPACT ON AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS, HAVE INCLUDED LOW SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES.
...ND/MN...
A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MIGRATE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THROUGH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO PARTS OF ND AND NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW AND SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS ND INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES,
BUT ALSO INCREASING CAPPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NEVERTHELESS, MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE EVENING, SPREADING
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME
RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE,
NECESSITATING LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AMID
STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS.
..LEITMAN/LYONS.. 07/16/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 16, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO, AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
... PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ...
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN THE 16/00 UTC
GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT.
DURING THE DAY, A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD, AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MUTED BY SMOKE AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT -- ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE COLD FRONT AND EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, AND THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORM DURING THE EVENING.
WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
... WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO ...
A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON
SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, AS SUGGESTED BY THE
20260716 00UTC HREF. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE REGION BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA.
THAT SAID, EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
MAINTAINED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CAN
CONSOLIDATE AMID THE STEEP LOW-/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST 16/00
UTC HREF MEMBERS SHOW EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GUSTS APPROACHING
60 MPH, SUPPORTING A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.
... OHIO VALLEY ...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE, AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, 16/00 UTC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS EARLY INITIATION ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME LIMIT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD, STORM-SCALE DRIVEN WIND
THREAT. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.
..MARSH.. 07/16/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 16, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
... SYNOPSIS ...
THE CONUS-WIDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST BY
SATURDAY AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. STRONG
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST ON THE RIDGE'S NORTHWEST, NORTH,
AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES, A SERIES OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS AND SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY, ENDING UP IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN WAVE, THE 20260716/00 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS MULTIPLE SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, EACH OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY DEEPEN DURING THE DAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST, REACHING UPSTATE
NEW YORK BY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS WESTERN NEW YORK.
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SERVE
AS AN INITIATING BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN
UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATER
AFTERNOON ACROSS OHIO NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AS
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE
LINEAR CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONG, DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90FS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH THE HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXTEND. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING,
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA CAN INTERACT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.
STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
EXIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE
LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
..MARSH.. 07/16/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET WILL PIVOT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE, IN ADDITION TO MONSOON
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY, WILL YIELD A MIX OF WET/DRY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE TODAY. A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OR/WA
IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW (AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS) TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, FAR NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT CENTRAL VALLEY WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BROAD DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOWER MOVING AND MAINLY TERRAIN BOUND,
LIMITING LIGHTNING IGNITION POTENTIAL.
...WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE...
A 50-60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A PARENT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
INTO THE WA/OR CASCADES THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AMID
PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE, EVOLVING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
RESULTANT FAST NORTH/NORTHEAST STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION IN SOME RAIN CORES. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY.
NONETHELESS, FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE WITH ERCS HOVERING AROUND THE
90TH PERCENTILE WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE SOME NEW IGNITIONS (WITH
NASCENT FIRES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OR). A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT
EMERGES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NV AND SOUTHWESTERN ID THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT RECENT RAINFALL HAS MITIGATED FUEL RECEPTIVITY WHICH SHOULD
REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL VALLEY...
BREEZY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY,
ALBEIT ON A SLIGHTLY REDUCED SCALE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LOWER HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY, CONFINING THE THREAT TO ADJOINING
COASTAL RANGES AND TERRAIN GAP FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RH WILL
NEAR 15%. AS SUCH, TRIMMED EASTERN EXTENT OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON...
CONSIDERABLY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS NORTHEASTERN CA,
NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR, AIDED BY THE ADVANCING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW AND RELATED LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 10% DURING PEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE RECENT RAINFALL WAS MINIMAL.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL U.S. EVACUATION OF DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE HASTENED BY DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BRING DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CA, OR AND NV FRIDAY.
SIMILARLY, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTH-CENTRAL OR AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
NV...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW IN THE
GREAT BASIN WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CA AND ADJACENT OR AND NV AREAS. EFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL MANIFEST IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE OF AROUND 15 MPH DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
COUPLED WITH RH OF 10-15% WILL BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN TO THE AREA AMID DRY FUELS.
...COLUMBIA BASIN...
DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND OKANOGAN VALLEY AS AN UPPER LOW
EJECTS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH
AND RH DROPPING TO 15% SHOULD BRIEFLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, PRECEDING RAINFALL COULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT, PRECLUDING INTRODUCTION OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS OUTLOOK
ISSUANCE.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
PYTHON PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 1.1
NEW DOMAIN LU9DCE.KOZOW.COM
前のメール | 次のメール