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LU9DCE > NEWS 29.05.26 18:33l 356 Lines 14139 Bytes #10 (0) @ WW
BID : 14664_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-MAY
Path: JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260529/0931Z 14664@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI MAY 29 08:29:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI MAY 29 08:29:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI MAY 29 08:29:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI MAY 29 08:29:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC MAY 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND
SCATTERED SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERN UTAH,
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...SYNOPSIS...
LATE-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CA WITH A SUBTROPIC JET EMANATING OUT OF BAJA CA INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL MIGRATE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE
SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER WAVE, 25-35 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITHIN A WEAK EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW REGIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST BROAD-SCALE ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ATOP A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING AND AFTER PEAK HEATING FROM SOUTHERN TX
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WITHIN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING A FEW SEVERE STORMS. A MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED, BUT WEAK,
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
TX INTO EASTERN CO ALONG A MODESTLY DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WHERE ASCENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED AND MIXED-LAYER INHIBITION MINIMIZED.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYNOPTIC ASCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD PROMOTE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
15% WIND PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX
TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER STORM COVERAGE.
ACROSS BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WARM LOW-LEVEL
CONDITIONS/DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-3 KM WILL LIKELY PROMOTE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN TX MAY SUPPORT A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT, AND POSSIBLY
A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR ORGANIZED
BANDS CAPABLE OF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 75 MPH. THROUGH THE LATE EVENING,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR THE TERMINUS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET MAY SUPPORT
ELEVATED, LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OK AND WESTERN KS.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES/MONTANA...
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WITHIN THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ID
AND SOUTHWEST MT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S) COUPLED WITH 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION AND SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION (POSSIBLY
INTO TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED BANDS) THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
...SOUTHERN UTAH...
5% WIND PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST
UT WHERE WEAK, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE DRY DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH LATEST CAM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SCANT BUOYANCY (MUCAPE BETWEEN 100-250 J/KG) AND VERY TRANSIENT
CONVECTION, A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER (LCL VALUES UPWARDS OF 3 KM)
FEATURING 25-35 KNOT FLOW WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SPORADIC STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MOORE/MARSH.. 05/29/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/EASTERN WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST MONTANA...
AT MID-LEVELS, A LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING ON
SATURDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED
NEAR A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS, MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SUGGEST THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING, AS A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDELY-SPACED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA, BUT
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT MORE LOCALIZED.
...KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARPLY DEFINED
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF MUCH OF THE DRYLINE, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 29, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
...LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY, AS FLOW IN ITS WAKE REMAINS FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A MESOLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A BROAD MOIST SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
DRYLINE EASTWARD TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
MOIST AIRMASS, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONES THAT SETUP IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE ALOFT. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT
CAN INITIATE AND PERSIST. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 29, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...MONDAY/DAY 4 TO WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...
AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. ON MONDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY, AN AXIS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. IN SPITE OF
LIMITED FORCING, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED. ON TUESDAY, ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IN THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA.
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND MID MISSOURI VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
...THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND FRIDAY/DAY 8...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH, ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL OPEN UP AND
LIFT NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA/CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS, A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LOCATED IN THE BASAL
REGION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO.
... COLORADO PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST ...
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE OVERHEAD. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS BENEATH THIS JET STREAK, STRONG VERTICAL
MIXING WILL RESULT IN STRONG, GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE,
PERHAPS LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH. RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A FEW
HOURS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS, COUPLED WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING TROUGH, WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA, CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH, AND WESTERN
COLORADO. GIVEN RECEPTIVE FUELS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE (AS MEASURED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 0.5 INCHES) WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN AVERAGE FORECAST STORM SPEEDS AROUND 30 KNOTS.
..MARSH.. 05/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL US IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW, BETWEEN A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH AND A GULF MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL PATTERN CONFIGURATION FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, THE OVERALL FLOW APPEARS TOO WEAK ACROSS AREAS
WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS AND FUELS APPEAR TO BE UNRECEPTIVE ACROSS AREAS
WITH STRONGER FLOW. THUS, LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO
BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY-2/SATURDAY.
..MARSH.. 05/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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