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LU9DCE > NEWS 12.10.26 21:11l 383 Lines 15084 Bytes #9 (0) @ WW
BID : 24693_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-OCT
Path: JH4XSY<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261012/1131Z 24693@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON OCT 12 08:30:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON OCT 12 08:30:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON OCT 12 08:30:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON OCT 12 08:30:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 12, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AT MID-LEVELS, AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION TODAY, AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.,
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND FURTHER WEST WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
ALSO FORM WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, FROM PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA. NO SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 10/12/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 12, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IN PARTS OF NEW YORK.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS WITH A DOWNSTREAM BELT OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITHIN THAT AIRSTREAM, A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE A MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE TRANSLATES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN IA INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST
KS, WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW. DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE KS LOW TO ALONG THE TX-NM BORDER BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
TO THE ST. JOSEPH AND KANSAS CITY, MO VICINITIES IN THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN A FAVORABLE
CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW-MID 70S
F. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP, THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG. SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO ELIMINATE
REMAINING CAPPING, YIELDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL KS.
SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER-MO VALLEY.
A MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IA AND IL TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. FINALLY, A SEPARATE
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.
WITHIN THE LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK AREA, VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS
THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
BOTH ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL
THAT THE KS SEGMENT OF THE FRONT MAY TEND TO SURGE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM MODE
AND AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON SUPERCELL STORM MODES PERSISTING INTO EVENING WHEN
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED NEAR-GROUND SHEAR INCREASE.
...NEW YORK...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY WITHIN A
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECEDING
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. LINGERING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION,
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER,
WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST MLCAPE UP TO
500-750 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. ON THE CONDITION THAT SURFACE-BASED
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED, THE EXISTENCE OF A STRONGLY
SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT (PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW LEVELS) WOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL MAINTAIN LEVEL-1/MARGINAL RISK
PROBABILITIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENT OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION.
..MEAD.. 10/12/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 12, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER UT AND AZ WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE INTO CO WHILE AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTS
THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEDE THAT DISTURBANCE, SPREADING
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT. THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AND MINIMALLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CORRIDORS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY APPEAR POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF ANY MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY SERVING AS FOCI FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RESIDE ACROSS A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS CLOSER TO THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT WITH DECREASING SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS MORE PROBABLE. GIVEN THESE
POTENTIAL ISSUES/UNCERTAINTIES, ONLY LEVEL-1/MARGINAL RISK
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON THIS SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISMS
IN 00Z MODEL DATA. NONETHELESS, A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESIDE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE
AREA WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBLE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
..MEAD.. 10/12/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 12, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 4/THURSDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION WHILE PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY
5/FRIDAY. THAT UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A SURFACE LOW,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH, REACHING THE GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A DRIER, CONTINENTAL-
POLAR AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
LIMITING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
...DAY 4/THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A
SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW IN THE MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
MODEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. AS SUCH, SOME SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT
LEAST LEVEL-1/MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
...DAY 5/FRIDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS.
...DAYS 6 TO 8/SATURDAY TO MONDAY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. COUPLED
WITH A REMNANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL LARGELY
SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WEST. FARTHER EAST, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST, BUT THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT LIMITED SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY TEMPER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (50-60 KTS AT THE NOSE OF A
PROMINENT 500 MB JET) WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS TODAY, AIDING IN MODEST STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FOSTER ENHANCED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO, WESTERN KANSAS, AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL ALSO AID IN RH VALUES
FALLING TO 20-25% (LOCALLY TO 15% ACROSS NORTHEASTERN/EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO, NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA). GIVEN
THESE FACTORS, LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO MANIFEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY MARGINAL FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS ACROSS THIS REGION PRECLUDES A BROADER FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS.. 10/12/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D2/TUESDAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LEE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH FORECAST FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES, SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL ALSO FOSTER RH REDUCTIONS TO AROUND
20% ACROSS THIS REGION, BUT POOR FUEL RECEPTIVENESS (ERCS GENERALLY
BELOW THE 50TH TO 60TH PERCENTILES) WILL TEMPER OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
FARTHER EAST, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONCURRENTLY,
A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST, BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. COUPLED WITH
LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WEST, WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LARGELY SUPPRESSED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
..CHALMERS.. 10/12/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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