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VA2OM  > SOLAR    22.06.26 18:19l 80 Lines 3713 Bytes #6 (0) @ WW
BID : 11475_VE2PKT
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<K5DAT<VE2PKT
Sent: 260622/0918Z 11475@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25

 
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jun 22 0229 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 June 2026

Solar activity was at low levels on 15-19 Jun with a total of 19
C-class flares, moderate levels on 20-21 Jun with three M-class (M5
or below) flares, and high levels on 22 Jun with an isolated M6.8
flare. Three out of the four M-class flares originated from Region
4473 (S08, L=133, class/area=Eko/270 on 20 Jun). These included: an
M1.0 at 20/1500 UTC, an M2.6 at 21/0246 UTC, and the M6.8/2b flare
at 21/1929 UTC (the largest of the period). Region 4472 (S14, L=149,
class/area=Dao/100 on 20 Jun) added the remaining M-flare, an M1.3
at 20/0151 UTC. 

Notable activity included a small filament eruption, a pair of
type-II radio sweeps, and a couple of CMEs. The filament eruption
was centered near S20E20 and began after 19/0300 UTC. A faint,
slow-moving CME signature appeared in STEREO-A COR2 imagery but was
not apparent in other available coronagraph imagery. Analysis and
modeling of the event indicated most of the ejecta will likely miss
behind Earth's orbit, with a slight possibility of a portion
grazing Earth by mid to late on 23 Jun. Additional CMEs were
observed early in the period, but none appeared to have an
Earth-directed component. The aforementioned radio sweeps were
relatively slow moving. The first was at 20/0407 UTC, with an
estimated velocity of 300 km/s, likely associated with a C1.4 flare
that occurred at 20/0307 UTC from Region 4470 (N06, L=188,
class/area=Dao/90 on 19 Jun). The second was at 21/1932 UTC, with an
estimated velocity of 380 km/s, likely associated with the M6.8/2b
flare. A CME associated with the C1.4 flare was analyzed and
determined to not have an Earth-directed component. A CME was also
likely associated with the M6.8 flare, but analysis was pending as
of this writing. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 15,16, and 18 Jun, with a peak flux of 2,043 pfu at
16/1525 UTC. Flux levels were at low to moderate levels on 17and
19-21 Jun. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period (15-21 Jun) under near-background conditions. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 June - 18 July 2026

Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels
on 22 Jun- 24 Jun, with an increasing chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares due primarily to the flare potential
of Region 4473 (S08, L=133, class/area=Eko/270 on 20 Jun).
Additional chances for M- and X- class flares are likely after 30
Jun with the anticipated return of Region 4463 (N16, L=339,
class/area=Hsx/70 on 10 Jun). 

<div> Chances for an S1 or greater proton event increase after 24
Jun as additional magnetically complex active regions are
snticipated to return to the visible disk.</div> The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
moderate levels on 22 Jun-03 Jul, 08-09 Jul, and 13-18 Jul. High
levels are likely on 05-07 Jul and 10-13 Jul with elevated wind
speeds associated with coronal hole high speed streams. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled
levels on 22-24 Jun, 27 Jun - 02 Jul, 04-07 Jul, 09-18 Jul. Isolated
active periods are possible on 25-26 Jun, 03 Jul, and 15 Jul in
response to recurrent, weak CH HSS influence. 
  
 
 73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
 


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