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I0OJJ  > DX       08.08.26 04:19l 139 Lines 6307 Bytes #7 (0) @ WW
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Subj: ARLP032 The ARRL Solar Report
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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 

ARLP032 Propagation Forecast 

ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT August 7, 2026
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 The ARRL Solar Report

Solar activity has been at low levels, with occasional B-class flaring and
isolated low-level C-class flares observed. The largest event of the period
was a C1.6/Sf flare on August 5 from Region 4502.

 
The six numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk are mostly stable or in
varying stages of decay. Region 4498 showed a slight decrease in penumbral
extent. Region 4499 declined in length and area, though limb foreshortening
hindered complete characterization of its magnetic structure. Region 4500
weakened in its leading spot. Region 4501 lost its trailing spots, decaying
into a unipolar group.

 
Region 4502 exhibited consolidation across both magnetic poles. Region 4503
was limited by foreshortening near the southeast limb, but appeared to show
modest new flux emergence in its trailing spots to become a bipolar group.

 
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

 
With ongoing region decay and several active regions in the western
hemisphere expected to rotate off the disk over the coming days, there is a
decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares August 6. Current
Solar Orbiter Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) imagery suggests no
significant returning regions during the forecast period.

 
Solar wind parameters remained at quiet, ambient, levels throughout the
period. Solar wind speeds reflected a slow wind regime, gradually declining
from early values near 400 km/s down to approximately 345 km/s late in the
period. The phi angle remained predominantly in the positive (away from the
Sun) sector.

 
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain in a slow wind regime through
early August 7. Later in the day, enhancements are anticipated to begin due
to the arrival of CMEs that departed the Sun on August 3. These CME
enhancements may persist into August 8, alongside potential weak influences
from a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is
likely too far south to become significantly geoeffective.


Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere,
August 6, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:


The effects of the expected decline in solar activity (within the context of
the 27-day cycle), which began before the end of July, were exacerbated by
the geomagnetic disturbance that occurred on August 2 3. The effects of this
decline will still be felt in the ionosphere during the first third of
August.

The second third of the month will bring an improvement.
Then, in the final third, when solar radiation levels will once again be
elevated, the approaching fall will also have a noticeable and positive
effect on the ionosphere.


The Predicted Planetary A Index for August 7 to August 13 is 5, 5, 5, 5, 8,
8, and 5 with a mean of 5.9. The Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 2, 2,
3, 3, and 2 with a mean of 2.3. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 110, 105,
105, 105, 105, 105, and 110 with a mean of 106.4. 

 
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation [
http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [
http://www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [
http://www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] . Information and tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us [
http://k9la.us ] .

 
Also, check this: "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ] 

NNNN


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