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I0OJJ  > DX       22.08.26 08:42l 139 Lines 6206 Bytes #6 (0) @ WW
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Subj: ARLP034 The ARRL Solar Report
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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034 
 
ARLP034 Propagation Forecast 
 
ZCZC AP34
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034
>From ARRL Headquarters
Newington, CT August 21, 2026
To all radio amateurs
 
SB PROP ARL ARLP034
ARLP034 The ARRL Solar Report
 
Solar activity has continued at low levels, with most of the C-class activity
originating from Region 4507. The secondary source of C-class flares was
beyond the east limb and was responsible for the largest flare of the period,
a C5.0 on August 19.

 
There were four numbered regions on the visible disk. Most of them showed
some decay, losing intermediary/trailer spots or penumbra area. Region 4510
continued to rotate off the west limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the
period.

 
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over through August 21
with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/minor-moderate).

 
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning effect of the co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) and dominating influence of a negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream near Earth. Solar wind speeds increased from
400 km/s to about 550-600 km/s. Phi angle remained predominantly negative
during the past 24 hours.

 
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue reflecting the presence of high
speed streams associated with negative polarity coronal hole(s) through
August 21.

 
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere,
August 20, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

 
Earlier this week, an active region referred to as AR 4499 during the
previous solar rotation was approaching the northeastern limb of the solar
disk.

It emerged as AR 4513 on August 19. All four remaining active regions were
located on the western side of the solar disk; therefore, had AR 4513 not
emerged, there would have been a noticeable decline in overall solar
activity.

As it stands, however, solar activity will remain at its current level
through the end of August, although it remains lower than during the previous
solar rotation.

Given the two larger coronal holes on the western half of the solar disk, it
is no surprise that the solar wind is intensifying intermittently,
contributing to slightly increased geomagnetic activity and, consequently, to
intermittently deteriorating shortwave propagation conditions.

 
However, a decline in solar activity will eventually occur, as early as the
first third of September. Even before then, however, we can tentatively
expect a decrease in the Earth s magnetic field activity. Given the current
seasonal changes, as summer comes to an end in the ionosphere, we can expect
calmer and more stable shortwave propagation conditions not only toward the
end of August but also throughout most of the first half of September.

 
The Predicted Planetary A Index for August 21 to August 27 is 12, 12, 10, 8,
5, 5, and 5 with a mean of 8.1. The Predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 4, 3,
3, 2, 2, and 2 with a mean of 2.9. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 125,
125, 120, 115, 115, 110, and 110 with a mean of 117.1.

 
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation [
http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [
http://www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [
http://www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] . Information and tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us [
http://k9la.us ] .

 
Also, check this: "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ] 

NNNN


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