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LU9DCE > NEWS 14.07.26 19:47l 342 Lines 14103 Bytes #10 (0) @ WW
BID : 17659_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-JUL
Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 260714/1045Z 17659@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE JUL 14 07:23:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE JUL 14 07:23:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE JUL 14 07:23:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE JUL 14 07:23:01 UTC
2026.
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SPC JUL 14, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
...NORTHEAST...
AT MID-LEVELS TODAY, A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, VERY MOIST AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S F WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. BY AFTERNOON, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, FROM NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS ZONE WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS, WITH MLCAPE
PEAKING IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
A MIXED MODE WITH SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE.
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 7 C/KM, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY WITH INTENSE LINE
SEGMENTS. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH MAY OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS.
THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE GREATEST FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHWEST MAINE, WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 7 C/KM. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2
RANGE, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AT MID-LEVELS TODAY, FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE ROCKIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE 60S F ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST MOIST AXIS, WHICH IS FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM, A
POCKET OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MOIST AXIS. THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS EAST-TO-WEST ZONE AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA. BY LATE AFTERNOON,
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL MONTANA HAVE MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEP IN THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
..BROYLES/HALBERT.. 07/14/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 14, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW ON
WEDNESDAY.
... SYNOPSIS ...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ELONGATED
HIGHEST HEIGHTS WITHIN THE RIDGE FOUND FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PART DUE TO AN EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW
BUILDING THE RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CANADA, A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, AND A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW UNDERCUTTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO BE DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES.
AT THE SURFACE, GENERALLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS -- THE EXCEPTION LARGELY BEING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US, WITH A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SERVING TO DELINEATE THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH.
... NORTHERN NEW JERSEY NORTH/EAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ...
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WHERE MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONTRIBUTING TO
EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KNOTS.
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS MAY OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
BEST SIGNAL FOR INITIATION IS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK, WHICH WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY (AND THUS FARTHER INLAND) OR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE REALIZED AND SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WOULD NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER OUTLOOK.
... WESTERN MONTANA ...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING, WHICH WOULD IMPACT OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. SHOULD ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOP, THE REGION REMAINS BENEATH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT MAY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH THIS
OUTLOOK.
..MARSH.. 07/14/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 14, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
... SYNOPSIS ...
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES, STRONG
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. THESE RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE US TO REDEVELOP NORTHWESTWARD
--FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SECOND STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH THIS WEEK WILL
MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, ENDING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE US, ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK
ACROSS AREAS OF THE US WITH ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUS, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY REMAINS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
..MARSH.. 07/14/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS,
PROMOTING HOT, DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL FACILITATE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS, HEIGHTENING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL WY AND NORTH-CENTRAL CO
THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ALONG WITH A MORE RESTRICTED/PERIPHERAL MONSOON MOISTURE POOL, WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN CA INTO OR AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL WYOMING...
A BROAD SUBSIDENCE REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. EVIDENCED
BY RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SUSTAIN VERY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE SUPPORTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AMID RH AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BY PEAK HEATING. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS (ERCS IN THE 95-98TH
PERCENTILE RANGE) WILL YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AMID A SIMILARLY DRY FUELSCAPE AND LOW RH ENVIRONMENT. A
MINOR EXPANSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS WARRANTED BASED ON LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
A PLUME OF DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
SIERRA NEVADA WILL ARC NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING, REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIPHERAL MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TAPERING OFF TO 0.70" CLOSER TO THE CASCADE CREST WILL REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR INTO NORTHERN CA. AN UPPER TROUGH IMPINGING
UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN
OR. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION,
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG AND EAST OF THE OR
CASCADES AS A SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVE ACCELERATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED AS FAR
NORTH AS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE FUELS ARE INCREMENTALLY MORE
RECEPTIVE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAIN CORES ACROSS EASTERN OR AND
NORTHWEST NV WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4".
THUS, TRIMMED THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED MITIGATING RAINFALL.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/14/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER
DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
VIA DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL PROMOTE A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES AND CENTRAL VALLEY...
ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND TERRAIN ACCELERATED WINDS
WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
COASTAL RANGES INTO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL VALLEY. FUELS CONTINUE TO
DRY WITH ERC VALUES REACHING THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE RANGE UNDER VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THESE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AT 10-15 MPH (LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS) COMBINED
WITH RH OF 15-20% IN THE COASTAL RANGES TO AS LOW AS 10% IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A STAGNANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL
BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (UP TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED) OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD, NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN CO. THESE WINDS
COINCIDING WITH RH IN THE 15-20% RANGE WILL YIELD ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AMID VERY DRY FUELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXTENDED INTO CENTRAL WY GIVEN LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED RH AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT AND STEADY EASTERLY
WINDS.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/14/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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