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LU9DCE > NEWS 30.08.26 01:17l 307 Lines 12255 Bytes #10 (0) @ WW
BID : 21019_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-AUG
Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<W9GM<N6PNK<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260829/1615Z 21019@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 29 07:24:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 29 07:24:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 29 07:24:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 29 07:24:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN UTAH...AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
...GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A
BROAD SOUTHERN STEAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A BELT OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD
COMPLICATING EXPECTATIONS FOR DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION. STILL, FILTERED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ALONG A WEAK FRONT AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EASTERN NV INTO NORTHERN UT AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...FOUR CORNERS...
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN, STRONG HEATING OF A MONSOON AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ AND SOUTHERN UT. DEEP-LAYER FLOW HERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER NORTH, BUT SIGHT ENHANCEMENT COULD STILL
SUPPORT SOME CLUSTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NUMEROUS STORMS MAY BOLSTER DOWNDRAFTS.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CO AND NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...NORTHERN PLAINS..
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP DEEPEN A LEE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS EASTERN WY AND
WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ADVECT UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION AIDING IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EMANATING
FROM CENTRAL WY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH CAM
SOLUTIONS ARE VARIED.
...IA/MN...
A REMNANT CLUSTER OF STORMS OR A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS IS LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWESTERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA. DRIVEN BY STRONG OVERNIGHT WARM
ADVECTION AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, WEAK BUOYANCY, BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED RISK
FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE MORNING.
WEAKENING ASCENT AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
...ATLANTIC COAST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND A WEAKENING FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FL THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE, HIGH PWAT, BUT VERY WEAKLY SHEARED AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS WITH SPORADIC WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK REMAINS BELOW 5%.
..LYONS/WENDT.. 08/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 29, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
TOMORROW (SUNDAY). A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST THE UPPER
RIDGE AND IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SMALLER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN
WILL ENCOURAGE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THROUGH THE DAY, COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
RESULTING IN INCREASED BUOYANCY COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
...PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHEAST SD AND
WESTERN MN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STEEP (E.G. 6.5-7 C/KM). HOWEVER, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2500 J/KG OF TALL AND THIN
MLCAPE. COINCIDING THIS BUOYANCY WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BENEATH AN IMPINGING 500 MB WIND
MAXIMUM, YIELDING SIZEABLE CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS (E.G. 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND OVER 200 M2/S2 ESRH), ESPECIALLY BY
SUNSET. IF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT, ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR LAPSE RATES AND WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE WEST PRECLUDES HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE REGION. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
RELATIVELY FAST MOVING, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AMID ELONGATED, STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS, SO MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ACCOMPANIED BY A
SPARSE SEVERE GUST THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 29, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND AND HAIL, ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MID-MS VALLEY ON MONDAY, WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POISED TO CREST THE RIDGE AND IMPINGE ON THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, PROMOTING ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHEN ALSO CONSIDERING
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW, ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WILL OVERSPREAD A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SUPPORT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BY AFTERNOON.
A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE ROUGHLY ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER INTO CENTRAL WI. AN APPRECIABLE EML WILL EXTEND FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH UP TO 8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
MID 70S F DEWPOINTS, YIELDING OVER 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ON A WIDESPREAD
BASIS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET BENEATH 30-50 KT 500 MB FLOW, ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WITH 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE. SUCH
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT, WITH AT LEAST
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, STORM COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION SINCE THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY GRAZE THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO
THE NORTH. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED PENDING GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER STORM COVERAGE.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/29/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
...SOUTHEAST OREGON INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA...
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF 15-20% RH
THAT WILL RESIDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RICHER MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH EAST.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW 15-20 MPH TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
LOWER HUMIDITY TO 20-25%. DROUGHT-STRESSED FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL.
..WENDT.. 08/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW MODESTLY BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS
(15-20 MPH) TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROMOTE 20-25% RH. WHILE RECENT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN SOME PARTS
OF THE REGION, EXTREME/EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT HAS STRESSED FUELS SUCH
THAT FIRE SPREAD REMAINS POSSIBLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..WENDT.. 08/29/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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