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home | newest check | boards | help index | log | ps | userlogin | send sysop | slog | status forward | bcm news | users | version | remove cookieVA2OM > SOLAR 25.08.25 18:19l 73 Lines 3234 Bytes #9 (0) @ WW BID : 42291_VE2PKT Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<K5DAT<VE2PKT Sent: 250825/0918Z 42291@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24 :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts :Issued: 2025 Aug 25 0309 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts # Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 August 2025 Solar activity was at low levels on 18, 20, and 21 Aug with only C-class flares observed. Activity increased to moderate levels on 19 Aug following an M1.1 flare at 19/0439 UTC from an area beyond the Eastern limb. Moderate levels were also observed on 22 Aug as Region 4191 (N11, L=172, class/area=Ehi/360 on 24 Aug) produced a long-duration M1.7/Sf flare at 22/1851 UTC. Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 521 km/s. The associated CME was deemed to be behind the Sun-Earth line. Moderate levels continued into 23 and 24 Aug with an M1.9 at 23/2006 UTC and an M1.3 flare at 24/0836 UTC, both originating from beyond the NE limb. While multiple CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery over the period, nearly all were at or beyond the Eastern limb and none were considered to have an Earth-directed component. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels from 18-22 Aug. Beginning around midday on 22 Aug, flux levels began to rise following the long-duration M1.7 flare event, mentioned above. Levels continued to rise, eventually reaching a peak of 8.3 pfu at 24/2330 UTC, but never exceeded the greater than 10 pfu levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 19-20 Aug, and 22-23 Aug. Activity reached high levels on 18, 21, and 24 Aug, with the peak observed value of 2,200 pfu at 18/0830 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 18 and 24 Aug, bookending a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Unsettled to active conditions were observed on 20-23 Aug as CH HSS activity elevated, with active to minor storm levels observed on 19 Aug. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 August - 20 September 2025 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with varying chances for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate events) through 20 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton levels are expected to be at or above 10 pfu levels on 25 Aug before dropping below the 10 pfu level by 26 Aug. Levels should remain below thresholds through 20 Sep, with no additional events expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 25-26 Aug, 29 Aug-5 Sep, and 15-19 Sep. Conditions are likely to see high levels on 27-28 Aug, 6-14 Sep, and again on 20 Sep. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 29 Aug-3 Sep and again on 11-14 Sep. Unsettled levels are likely on 25-28 Aug, 7-10 Sep, and 17-20 Sep. Active conditions are likely on 4-9 Sep and 15-16 Sep, with possible minor storming on 4-6 Sep and 15 Sep. All increased activity levels are associated with coronal hole high speed stream influence. 73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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