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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.02.25 19:33l 388 Lines 12178 Bytes #0 (0) @ WW
BID : 5784_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-FEB25
Path: JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250213/1030Z 5784@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 7
WW 7 TORNADO AL MS 130245Z - 130900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AREA, IN A REGION OF VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 125 MILES WEST OF EVERGREEN AL TO 35
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF AUBURN AL. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 7 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0007 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GPT TO
35 SW SEM TO 20 NW MGM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093.
..GRAMS..02/13/25
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-081-085-087-099-
101-109-113-129-131-130640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER CLARKE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS
ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE
LOWNDES MACON MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL
WASHINGTON WILCOX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 6 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0006 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MSY TO
30 ESE TCL.
..WEINMAN..02/13/25
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-129-131-130340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA
MARENGO MOBILE MONROE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
MSC035-039-041-067-073-111-131-153-130340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORREST GEORGE GREENE
JONES LAMAR PERRY
STONE WAYNE
GMZ630-631-632-130340-
CW
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SPC MD 93
MD 0093 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6...7... FOR SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST
GA...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...7...
VALID 130518Z - 130645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6, 7 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOWERING-PROBABILITY TORNADO AND STRONG WIND THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD
TRAJECTORY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH A LACK OF STRONGER,
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOW-MOVING WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ELMORE TO RUSSELL COUNTY, AL. TRENDS IN MOB
VWP DATA REVEAL AN INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND
0-1 KM SRH DECREASING TO AROUND 200 M2/S2. STILL, AT LEAST A
LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO/WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES
EAST. THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THESE THREATS INTO GA WILL BE
MODULATED BY EVENTUAL OCCLUSION OF THE WARM-MOIST SECTOR IN
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL GA, AS THE CENTRAL AL SURFACE LOW DECAYS
AND WARM-SECTOR PRESSURE RISES INCREASE.
..GRAMS.. 02/13/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32878588 32938554 32868519 32418461 31898442 31628463
31468513 31118586 30468683 30428757 30758775 31278766
31768715 32228669 32878588
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SPC FEB 13, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO GA...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SLOW NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM
FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AL. ONLY MINOR NORTHWARD PROGRESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF FAR WESTERN GA, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA
AND COASTAL PLAIN (SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT) WILL MAINTAIN A FETCH OF
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE SLIDELL, LA 00 UTC RAOB SHOWED 1700
J/KG MLCAPE WHEREAS ONLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE WAS SAMPLED ATOP A
COOL/STABLE LAYER AT BIRMINGHAM, AL. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG DUE
TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS) ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA AND SHIFTING
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
GUSTS WILL ALSO FOCUS WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS THAT GET ENGULFED IN THE EASTWARD SHIFTING BAND. FARTHER
NORTH, THE AIRMASS DUE TO THE RESIDUAL WEDGE FRONT OVER NORTHERN
GA/NORTH-CENTRAL AL WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ANNOTATED A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES AND
ASSOCIATED THE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.
..SMITH.. 02/13/2025
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SPC FEB 13, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
...SOUTHEAST...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
LIKEWISE, A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO WILL
DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
U.S. A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND SC. THE SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY FOCUS DURING
THE MORNING AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS
WITHIN A MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR (250-750 J/KG MLCAPE)
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STORM INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
850-MB SPEED MAX SHIFTS NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BAND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BEFORE THIS THREAT WANES.
...CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...
A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY AND REACH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. INITIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION
WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTH BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON DUE IN
PART TO STRONG MID-LEVEL COLD-AIR ADVECTION (500-MB TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE -22 TO -25 DEG C RANGE). AS A RESULT, THE
STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD UPWARDS OF 250 J/KG SBCAPE.
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PROGGED IN THE LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST/NEAR-SATURATED LOW LEVELS COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM.
A COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT ROTATION AND
POTENTIALLY YIELD A LOCALIZED WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
..SMITH/WEINMAN.. 02/13/2025
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY, AS A COLD POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
AND RELATED PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE WEST.
..WEINMAN.. 02/13/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WEST, A BELT OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE, A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, PROMOTING BREEZY/GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THIS MAY FAVOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE MODESTLY RECEPTIVE (PORTIONS OF WEST TX
AND SOUTHEAST NM), MARGINAL RH REDUCTIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
FIRE-WEATHER THREAT.
..WEINMAN.. 02/13/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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