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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.02.25 19:31l 116 Lines 4029 Bytes #1 (0) @ WW
BID : 5830_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-FEB25
Path: JH4XSY<N3HYM<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250214/1030Z 5830@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI FEB 14 05:46:01 UTC 2025
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI FEB 14 05:46:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI FEB 14 05:46:01 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI FEB 14 05:46:01 UTC 2025.
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SPC FEB 14, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
...CALIFORNIA...
SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-TOPPED
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ONGOING NEAR THE LA METRO AREA. LOCAL
WSR-88D VWP DATA SUGGESTS AROUND 40-50 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL, WHILE THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
VANDENBERG SAMPLED AROUND 100 J/KG SBCAPE.
OTHERWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
VALLEY OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.
..GUYER.. 02/14/2025
READ MORE
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SPC FEB 14, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS, WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OZARKS/MID-SOUTH TO TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...
INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONICALLY INFLUENCED WESTERLIES WILL
REACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WITH A SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING AND
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-SHUNTING LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED ROBUST
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PARCELS SHOULD GRADUALLY REACH THEIR
LFC WITH SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION (GENERALLY BASED 800-900MB)
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE COULD
REACH 750+ J/KG COINCIDENT WITH A LONG/SEMI-STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH IN
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY ROBUST WITH RELATIVELY TALL/THIN ELEVATED BUOYANCY.
WHILE SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (9Z-12Z/3-6AM
CST) IN AREAS SPANNING NORTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HAIL MAGNITUDES TO GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OVERALL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT.
..GUYER/THORNTON.. 02/14/2025
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